Scientific Thinking (Jacopo)

 The 3 philosophers: Aristotle Eratosthenes Galileo In class, we watched 30 minutes of the Pfizer hearing, where they present their Clinical trial data to the FDA and a group of epidemiologists. They presented the data from all phases of the clinical trial. In the different data that they collected, they split up the groups to different gender and age group, the data showed use that the vaccine has more of an effect on younger people younger people tend to have more fevers than the people in the older group. Another thing they called about was the douses.

Scenario: You are being asked to run a Phase I Clinical Trial on a drug that we hope will help with shortness of breath related to COVID. Questions:   What would you want to learn about how and when a future patient will take the drug? We want to learn how much time the drug's distribution will take. What would you want to know about the side effects of the drug that you are testing for? We want to know which are the side effects and how to decrease them. Phase II Clinical Trials - What has happened so far? Pre-Clinical Trials Phase I Clinical Trials Phase II Clinical Trials start with doses and formulations that were found to be the safest during the Phase I Clinical trials. -Phase II: Key Takeaway This is the first time that researchers give the drug to patients with the disease for which the drug is being developed (FDA) We are now looking at drug/vaccine efficacy! Phase II studies typically involve up to a few hundred patients. They aren't big enough to definitively prove w...

VIDEO DUE YESTERDAY What is a Control Group? A group that serves as the control (noun) in a scientific experiment. What is an Independent Variable? A variable (often denoted by x) whose variation does not depend on that of another. What is  a Dependent Variable? A variable (often denoted by y) whose value depends on that of another. What is difference between Control Group and Control Variable? A  control   group  is  different  from a  control   variable . You expose a  control   group  to all the same conditions as the experimental  group , except you change the independent  variable  in the experimental  group . Both the  control   group  and experimental  group  should have the same  control   variables . VIDEO What is pressure on Scientists? They have to be credible and respect deadlines. Why aren't replication studies done more often? Because they don't really want to repl...

Conspiracy theories Life is a simulation  Area 51, aliens QAnon, it is a far-right conspiracy theory alleging that a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophiles is running a global child sex-trafficking ring and plotting against US President Donald Trump, who is battling against the cabal. Study Design Data using Simulations Advantage low risk, low cost, efficient opportunity for investigation Disadvantages Need a through understanding and an awareness Observational Studies: observe study without alteration Advantages observational studies a re the only way researchers can explore certain questions Disadvantages the results of observational studies are open to dispute. They run the risk of containing confounding biases. Experimental Design: a researcher imposes a treatment on participants and measures the response Advantages can prove cause and effect relationship Disadvantages costly, require a lot of oversight A Well Designed Experiment

  Samples Group Work HIV low-income, urban area, Stratify Sample Birthweight, Stratify Sample Heart Disease, Multistage Sample Determining the type of sampling used Stratify Sample Quota Sample, not the best one Voluntary Response Sample, not a good one Sample Random Sample Covid-19 Vaccine Not everyone wants to take the vaccine. They give us a few reasons to get the vaccine. Their goal is to get everyone to do it and they try to convince people with emotional questions. P-Hacking It stands for Probability Hacking. P-Hacking is about changing probabilities. For example, when you throw a coin you have 50% going out head and 50% going out cross but throwing the coin with a certain direction the chances change.

  Articles 1. Breast cancer:  cocky correlation, correlation/association is not causality might insert a graph, it can help good pool "It is important to note that these data do not suggest in any way that modifying sleep habits could eventually lead to a decrease in the risk of breast cancer," Luca Magnani they are conscious of the cocky correlation 2. Diet drinks: cocky correlation, correlation/association is not causality it's not a completed study, it will be finished in 2029 not a good pool, they were missing a lot of people how much sugar does it need to be a diet drink? might insert a graph, it can help Cocky correlation Ice cream and death Marry man live more than single man : Healthy people used to marry Poor people are less used to marry Relation between self estimation and good grades: Self estimation causes good grades After years they found out that it was the opposite Good grades causes self estimation.

Adults Percentage Numeracy Level 1 Predict White: 15% Black: 30% Hispanic: 35% Other: 20% Final Percentages White: 39% Black: 26% Hispanic: 28% Other: 7% Five things to look for statistics  1. The good looking graph. 2. The polluted pool. 3. The over confidential decimal point. 4. The not-so spectacular statistics. 5. The cocky correlation. Correlation is not causality Before you say one thing causes another one you have to find out the reason why it is a causality and not only a "cocky correlation". Articles 1. Breast cancer: cocky correlation, we might insert a graph because there aren't. https://apple.news/AiGkMF_mMTmmZ64OaZoXeUQ